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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.