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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."