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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.